Qualitative Research Method «Delphi Method»

Abstract

One of the group knowledge acquisition methods is the Delphi technique, which is a structured process for forecasting and aiding decision-making through iterative phases, information collection, and ultimately, group consensus. The Delphi method is primarily used in futures studies. The application of the Delphi method is generally aimed at discovering innovative and reliable ideas or providing appropriate information for decision-making. The Delphi method is a structured process for collecting and classifying existing knowledge among a group of experts through distributing questionnaires and controlled feedback of the received responses and opinions. The Delphi method is based on the dialectical research approach, which involves: thesis (formation of opinion or view), antithesis (contrary opinion or view), and synthesis (new agreement and consensus), leading to the development of a new theory. The Delphi technique was initially based on individuals’ guesses, judgments, and inspirations, but gradually evolved into a scientific method. It was first used in the late 1950s by the RAND Corporation to scientifically examine military experts’ opinions, though it was not published for 12 years due to security reasons. Its first non-military application was suggested in economic development planning. Overall, since the mid-1960s, Delphi has been recognized as an important scientific method and is now used for a wide range of future-oriented and complex questions across various fields.